As Nigeria marks 65 years of independence, economists are sharply divided regarding the nation’s economic direction. Some point to advancements in education, infrastructure, and policy-led recovery, while others express concern over persistent poverty, underdeveloped industries, and long-standing missed chances that still affect Africa’s biggest economy.OLUWAKEMI ABIMBOLAwrites
At age 65, Nigeria’s performance is receiving sharply contrasting evaluations from prominent economists, who are divided on whether to acknowledge a resilient ‘work in progress’ or express disappointment over years of unrealized potential. While one expert highlights grounds for pride, citing improvements in education, infrastructure, and national cohesion, another contends that with 80 per cent of the population lacking essential necessities and the manufacturing industry contributing less than 10 per cent to GDP, the country has not fulfilled its promise.
When Nigeria gained independence in 1960, its economy was primarily focused on agriculture, which was the leading sector, accounting for more than half of the Gross Domestic Product, supplying most of the jobs, and serving as the main source of foreign exchange through cash crops such as cocoa, groundnuts, and palm oil. Although the oil industry had been identified, its impact was still limited. The overall economic activity was marked by a dependence on raw materials, low income per person, and a small, not very competitive manufacturing sector that concentrated on initial import substitution initiatives, highlighting the country as a developing nation with considerable growth potential but also susceptible to changes in global market prices.
From that point onward, the economy entered the oil boom era, characterized by a significant dependence on the petrodollar that continues to this day. Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics regarding Nigeria’s GDP revealed that the oil sector remains a key driver of the economy. Oil GDP grew by 20.5 per cent year-on-year in Q2 ’25, representing the strongest post-rebasing figure, driven by a favorable base and increased crude production. Average output increased to 1.68 mb/d from 1.62 mb/d in the previous quarter, supported by enhanced monitoring through greater participation of private security firms and the use of advanced tracking technologies that have reduced theft and improved pipeline safety. These initiatives have led to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission reporting that crude losses averaged 9,600 b/d YTD to July 2025, the lowest level since 2009.
Nevertheless, the non-oil sector has demonstrated improvement in recent periods, increasing by 3.6 per cent year-on-year (compared to 3.2 per cent in the previous quarter), with non-oil activities driven by the services industry, which grew by 3.9 per cent year-on-year in Q2 ’25, boosted by gains in financial services and a recovery in transport and storage due to a low-base effect.
Speaking about the economy, Ayo Teriba, an economist and Chief Executive Officer of Economic Associates, stated that although the last ten years were marked by a downturn, the present time is something to be joyful about, representing a distinct success driven by policies.
He stated, “For the first time since gaining independence, Nigeria is blessed to be commemorating the anniversary with a sense of economic revival. Indeed, it’s positive that he can rejoice in the fact that the economy has moved past its challenges. The economy is now in a phase of recovery. The period of instability has concluded. And the era of stagnation has also come to an end.”
Credit goes to President (Bola) Tinubu for connecting with 65 years, as this is the first economic recovery in Nigeria’s 65 years of independence that has been driven by policy rather than a boom. All previous booms in Nigeria, without exception, have resulted from positive external shocks. None have come from effective economic reforms. The current growth is also separate from oil prices. This is the first time we’ve experienced an economic recovery even without money. Although money has been our challenge, the president has restructured the recovery. History will acknowledge him positively for this.
Emphasizing that Nigeria’s recent economic downturn began in 2025 and contributed to the removal of former president Goodluck Jonathan, Teriba outlined five factors he claimed were benefiting the Tinubu administration.
These encompass an enhancement in foreign exchange reserves, which amounted to $42.32 as of Monday; followed by the exchange rate, which ended at 1,476.34 per dollar, also on Monday; a slowing down of inflation at 20.18 percent; a rising GDP growth of 4.2 percent in the second quarter, exceeding forecasts of 3.6 percent; and more recently, the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Committee reduced the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 27 percent.
Although Teriba praised the Tinubu administration in these areas, he expressed worries regarding the government’s inability to address financial matters, stating, “He has achieved significant policy successes at the macro level. The macroeconomic situation appears to be good, and it’s as if President Tinubu is smelling roses. However, he is struggling with fiscal issues. As people who care about Nigeria, we won’t remain silent on this. If he claims that he has surpassed his non-oil revenue for the year, that refers to the non-oil revenue for the federation. Let’s say he tells me that by August, we have reached N20tn in non-oil revenue. How much of that N20tn is allocated to the federal budget? It’s probably no more than N7tn or so. So why are you celebrating it? You want to spend N55tn, so why are you celebrating N20tn? Even if all that N20tn is solely for the Federal Government, it’s still not enough to celebrate.”
You have a fiscal committee that has been active for two years. They haven’t generated any revenue. They’re just leading us on a pleasant journey with no destination. We need to generate income, and you shouldn’t be discussing tax revenue when the federal secretariat in Ikoyi is empty. Do you know how valuable that place is? It’s worth trillions of naira, yet you’re not earning a single penny from it. Then you want Nigerians to pay four percent on FOB. Earn money from the federal secretariat. Earn money from the national stadium and let Nigerians be. You don’t need tax revenue. The economy has been stagnant. People are struggling. Don’t tax them. Go and earn money from the assets we own. Go and earn money from real estate and leave us alone.
Regarding the projects the government is initiating, Teriba stated his backing for the superhighway and other long-standing road developments, yet emphasized that the government should encourage investors to assume responsibility rather than seeking to finance the initiatives.
But consider, if it were to build 750 kilometers of coastal highway and in two and a half years it has only completed 30 kilometers, due to lack of funds to issue contracts. This is not the only capital project that is facing delays. It should not rely on regular income to finance capital projects. It should allow investors to provide funding for these capital projects. The way investors have supported telecoms, the way they have funded LNG.
He argued that President Tinubu had to prove his ability to reform financial policy and showcase his skill in drawing in investments.
“Individuals are making investment commitments, but they are not being fulfilled. This is because the government chooses to take loans instead of allowing investors to handle these projects on their own. We did not take loans to support GSM telephony. We did not take loans to support LNG. We should not take loans to finance those older projects he is attempting. The market has already provided the funding. It should allow the market to continue financing them,” he concluded.
Prominent economist and former Vice Chancellor of the University of Uyo, Professor Akpan Ekpo, provided a sharp analysis of Nigeria’s economic growth, stating that the country has been “regressing” and has not reached its full potential despite its abundant human and natural resources. He argued that even after 65 years of independence, approximately 80 percent of Nigerians still do not have access to fundamental necessities like clean water, quality healthcare, and education.
Some might argue that, 65 years after becoming a nation, we are still in the process of development. However, considering our resources—both human and material—we have not yet met our goals or anything close. We haven’t achieved them yet. In fact, over the past 50 or so years, I believe we have been on a downward trend. This doesn’t imply that we can’t reach our destination, but our potential remains completely untapped. The economy has experienced constant fluctuations—up and down, up and down, up and down. In the last 15 to 20 years, it has been extremely challenging. Therefore, it’s good to celebrate, but we should do so with the hope that the future will be better.
For instance, following 65 years of independence, approximately 80% of Nigerians still do not have access to fundamental necessities. They lack clean water, adequate healthcare, and quality education, among other things. A small number of individuals, possibly the elite, may have these essentials. However, regarding modernity, we can claim some advancement; there are now more doctors and engineers than before. Yet, many of the doctors currently in the country are emigrating.
“We hope that in the future, we will have leaders who prioritize the people. We need forward-thinking leaders capable of transforming the economy. If we claim to be progressing, why has the manufacturing sector contributed less than 10 percent to GDP over the past five years? This sector and its entire supply chain. True progress will occur when we demonstrate our efforts to industrialize, become more diversified, and so on. We claim to be making progress. There is still hope, but I believe we should celebrate with a realistic and thoughtful perspective,” he stated.
Regarding the diversification of the economy, Ekpo mentioned that some minor steps are being taken, but “we haven’t arrived there yet. There is a lot of confusion regarding the GDP being diversified. The GDP covers six sectors, but the economy hasn’t been diversified. If it were, why is the percentage of manufactured imports—items we import as finished goods and services—around 55 per cent? Meanwhile, the share of manufactured goods we export is only about two per cent. Therefore, the economy is not diversified.”
Moving ahead, our focus should be on diversification. The manufacturing sector needs to contribute a minimum of 45 percent to GDP. That is the standard we should aim for. These are the countries we look up to: China, Indonesia, Singapore, and others. At the very least, even if we reach 25 percent or so, that’s acceptable. Currently, it’s below 10 percent. We can achieve industrialization through agriculture. For instance, we are the top global producer of cassava. Why don’t we have starch processing industries? Similarly, we grow cocoa but still import chocolate. Therefore, there are multiple ways to accomplish this through agriculture.
That is the focus we should maintain moving ahead, to offer the young people and upcoming generations a sense of optimism.
A former Chief Economist at Zenith Bank, Marcel Okeke, who also spoke to The PUNCH, expressed a more positive outlook, stating, “Overall, Nigeria is still in the process of development. That’s how I describe it. Our progress is ongoing. No nation ever reaches a point where they claim to have achieved their peak. No country does. Therefore, Nigeria remains a work in progress. And I am confident that moving forward, we will continue to improve.”
Regarding the diversification of the economy, Okeke mentioned that Tinubu seems to be making efforts in this area.
“If you examine certain metrics such as the volume of exports and the value of exports, yes, in recent periods, the terms of trade are now favorable, indicating that we are now exporting more than we import.” However, he emphasized that “The government must also be cautious so that we do not harm ourselves or act against our own interests regarding what we are exporting. What exactly are we exporting? Are we not exporting the food that we are meant to consume in this country? That is a significant issue. Since there is now food insecurity in this country,” he stated.
The Director and Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr. Muda Yusuf, in his analysis of the Nigerian economy, stated, “Ongoing macroeconomic instability continues to hinder growth. The naira’s sharp decline, from being stronger than the U.S. dollar in the 1970s to 1,600/$ in 2024, has reduced buying power, increased production costs, and deterred investment. Increasing public debt and unmanageable debt-service-to-revenue ratios have restricted fiscal flexibility, limiting governments’ ability to finance essential infrastructure. Policy efforts should concentrate on achieving currency stability via reliable monetary policy, boosting foreign exchange availability by expanding non-oil exports, enhancing efficiency in public spending, addressing fiscal leaks, and increasing non-oil revenue without hindering private enterprise. The positive aspect is that the economy has shown a significant level of stability over the past year.”
Nigeria’s economic journey over 65 years has been marked by perseverance, lost chances, and significant unrealized possibilities. The ongoing reform initiatives offer a unique chance to reorient the economy towards a route of stability, competitiveness, and collective well-being. Capturing this opportunity will demand steady policies, enhanced institutions, and a focused approach to ensure that economic growth leads to better quality of life for the population.
In the meantime, economist Dr. Doyin Salami, who addressed the 12th public lecture at the Fourscore Gospel Church, stated that Nigeria’s economic growth has been highly unstable, and with this trend, “it’s challenging, fundamentally, to predict what will come next.”
For Nigeria to progress, he explained, its growth needs to be swift, at least double the pace of its population increase. However, he revealed another key issue. “We lack a clear understanding of our population size or the speed at which it is growing,” he lamented. He showed empathy for governors who have to make plans based on figures that are, at best, approximations. By using a typical assumption of 3.2 percent annual population growth, he determined that Nigeria’s economy must maintain a growth rate of approximately 6.5 percent over a ten-year period.
Salami also mentioned that investing in Nigeria does not always result in economic growth. He stated that his team’s research showed “that in Nigeria’s economy, investment is surprisingly not linked to growth. An increase in investment does not necessarily boost growth.” He then provided two reasons for this phenomenon. One factor is that some activities classified as investment do not truly contribute to growth, and the current level of investment has not reached the necessary threshold to trigger growth.
The economist, who mentioned he has been working since 1989, stated that Nigeria is experiencing de-industrialization.
As an economy, we are experiencing a decline in manufacturing. Due to this de-industrialization, services now constitute more than half of our economic output. What’s the issue with these services? We aren’t referring to services that aid industry. Instead, we’re talking about services where individuals leave the formal economy and enter an informal one. We have a service sector characterized by unstable jobs and low productivity, which results in a significant number of working poor.
The first point I made was that investment is not driving growth. Secondly, we are witnessing a situation where we are moving away from industrialization. Thirdly, due to the large size of the service sector, currently 93 per cent of Nigeria’s workforce is in the informal sector. Only seven per cent of the labor force is in the formal, wage-based sector. You can start to feel sympathy for the government. Why? Because where are they supposed to collect funds from in the informal sector? It becomes an issue. People say, ‘We don’t like the government borrowing,’ but we also don’t want to pay taxes. We don’t want to pay levies either. Magicians have to start working. The existing economic structure creates a challenge.
He ended by urging for transparency in Nigeria’s economic approach, including implementing an exchange rate policy that focuses on global competitiveness rather than maintaining a strong currency, which only harms local producers and exporters. He also mentioned that the government cannot finance development by itself; it must seek methods to “attract private investment effectively,” especially considering the projected $100 billion annually required for two decades solely for infrastructure.
Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (Syndigate.info).
